China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, raising significant concerns about the country’s long-term demographic and economic stability. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the population decreased by 1.39 million people in the past year, bringing the total population to 1.4082 billion.
The primary factor behind this decline is an increasing death rate that now exceeds the birth rate. In 2024, China recorded 10.93 million deaths, a slight reduction from the previous year's 11.1 million. However, the birth rate remains insufficient to counterbalance the number of deaths. In 2024, 9.54 million newborns were registered, an increase of 520,000 compared to the previous year, yet still too low to prevent a population decline.
This trend is not new. China's population growth has been gradually slowing for decades, with a significant turning point in 2022 when deaths outnumbered births for the first time. This shift points to a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce, both of which are expected to place considerable strain on China’s economy in the years ahead.
The one-child policy, which was in place for several decades, played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s demographic landscape. Although the policy was phased out in 2016 in favor of a two-child policy, and later further relaxed to allow families to have up to three children, the changes have not been enough to reverse the demographic decline. Economic challenges, high living costs, and shifting societal norms have discouraged many young people from having children.
Experts warn that the long-term effects of these demographic changes could be far-reaching. A smaller workforce will likely lead to labor shortages, particularly in industries such as manufacturing and agriculture. Meanwhile, the increasing number of elderly people will place greater demands on healthcare systems and retirement benefits. As the world’s second-largest economy, these demographic trends could also have global economic consequences, particularly in terms of production and consumption.
In response to this issue, the Chinese government has implemented various measures aimed at boosting the birth rate, including financial incentives, improved parental leave policies, and subsidies for families. However, analysts caution that it may take years for these efforts to yield significant results.
The ongoing demographic shift presents not only a challenge for China but also for the broader global community. As one of the most influential countries in the world, China’s economic slowdown due to a declining and aging population could reshape global markets and investment trends, introducing a period of uncertainty for both China and its international partners.